Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

015
FXUS61 KBGM 150627
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
227 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with warm temperatures through the weekend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting
early Saturday morning. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected Sunday as a cold front moves through.
High pressure returns as well as cool temperatures for the start
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

- Quiet end to the week and first half of the weekend, as
  temperatures warm up, but isolated showers and thunderstorms
  will be possible.
- Cold front moves through on Sunday with more widespread
  showers and thunderstorms
- Cooler next week with low chances for showers

Discussion:

Mostly dry conditions are expected today, but moisture will
will start increasing and a couple of showers could pop up.
Shower chances look better on Saturday, as plume of moisture
surges further northward into the region. Instability and shear
are both weak, but there may be enough around for a few rumbles
of thunder.

Next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
Sunday as a cold front passes the region. Shear will be weak,
with 0-6 km bulk shear topping out around 25 knots, however
instability will increase to 1500+ J/kg of CAPE and potentially
support a few stronger storms. Following the front`s passage
Sunday night, cooler air begins to filter in and temperatures
cool back down into the 70s and 80s for the first half of next
week.

High pressure will drop south behind the departing front leading to
a dry start to the work week. Beyond Monday, there is some
uncertainty with the timing for the next round of showers. The GFS
is earliest with showers ahead of the main system beginning as early
as Tuesday morning whereas the ECMWF keeps conditions dry until at
least early Wednesday morning. NBM guidance seems reasonable given
this uncertainty with low chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will also be pleasant through the week, with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s to even the upper 40s through the
first half of the week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly clear skies with VFR conditions across all terminals
tonight. This is expected to continue through the TAF period as
high pressure will control the weather pattern today.

ELM previously had fog and IFR/LIFR conditions forecast to
develop tonight. It now seems like fog will struggle to get
going as very dry air moves into the area, with dewpoints
falling as temps fall. Current temp/dewpoint at ELM is 61/57,
with dewpoints falling as temps fall with the dry air overhead.
An area of clouds over north central PA is also slowly drifting
north and should move over ELM in the next couple of hours. This
would also put a damper on fog development as temps should
stabilize or even rise a degree or two with the cloud cover.
Guidance has also slowly backed off on fog development. Because
of these factors, fog and IFR/LIFR conditions were removed from
the TAF.


Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/t-storms along
another frontal passage.

Monday and Tuesday... Mainly VFR; low chance of
showers/t-storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...JTC